[DeTomaso] Any change in plans for the Fun Rally with the COVID-19 outbreak?
MARK CHARLTON
pantera01826 at rogers.com
Sun Mar 15 09:59:25 EDT 2020
I think that in addition to the rather terrifying mortality rate is the fact that this virus spreads extremely quickly and easily. And current predictions (even if not stated widely yet) are that with a year or two over 80% of the world population could be infected. Add to this that vaccines for corona-type viruses are extremely difficult to synthesize, and are also much less affective in aging people (the ones who need it most—US). An effective mass-produced vaccine is likely at least a year away.
And of course, anyone with any immune-deficiencies, heart condition, anyone undergoing Chemo, anyone with a susceptibility to respiratory illnesses will be at the top of the death list.
It seems to be “early” stages, but I think it is just a matter of time. We all need to take precautions to protect ourselves, the ones we love and those we don’t even know.
The world is changing, and Mother Nature is speaking clearly.
Mark Charlton
pantera01826 at rogers.com
> On Mar 14, 2020, at 5:05 PM, Mike & Elizabeth Thomas <mbefthomas2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> The issue as I've heard in Italy is that there are many more multigenerational households where your older, most vulnerable folks are mixed up close with the rest of the family on a daily basis.
>
> Our email address has changed: Please use mbefthomas2 at gmail.com for all new messages, thanks!
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: DeTomaso <detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com> On Behalf Of Dave Londry
> Sent: Friday, March 13, 2020 6:15 PM
> To: detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
> Subject: Re: [DeTomaso] Any change in plans for the Fun Rally with the COVID-19 outbreak?
>
> And while you're on an analytical bent, try the Italian numbers.
> Much worse.
> dave
>
> On 2020-03-13 7:09 a.m., steve at snclocks.com wrote:
>> Good morning Julian. I trust you are doing well.
>>
>>
>> You are absolutely right - that is a long article, and the current
>> estimates of mortality are around 2%. Or 3%, but 2% is a reasonable
>> talking point. Compared to a rate of around 0.2% for the flu. So, 10
>> times the risk of dying compared to the flu. Or, 1 in 50. Of the
>> general population. But, well, Hmmmm. I am sure most of you have
>> heard that those over 60 (raise your hands) have a higher risk. Let's
>> look at some stats from the Chinese situation:
>>
>>
>> COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
>>
>> *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of
>> dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending
>> on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT
>> represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition.
>> Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing
>> condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.
>>
>> PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
>>
>> DEATH RATE
>> confirmed cases
>>
>> DEATH RATE
>> all cases
>>
>> Cardiovascular disease
>>
>> 13.2%
>>
>> 10.5%
>>
>> Diabetes
>>
>> 9.2%
>>
>> 7.3%
>>
>> Chronic respiratory disease
>>
>> 8.0%
>>
>> 6.3%
>>
>> Hypertension
>>
>> 8.4%
>>
>> 6.0%
>>
>> Cancer
>>
>> 7.6%
>>
>> 5.6%
>>
>> no pre-existing conditions
>>
>> 0.9%
>>
>> *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of
>> dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add
>> up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by condition.
>>
>>
>> Right. So, somewhere around 10% for those with cardiovascular issues
>> (raise your hands), and 8% with Diabetes (right - more hands?), and
>> hypertension at around 7%... OK, put your hands down. But, gads, if
>> you have one of them "Comorbidities" thangs - well, a 1 in 10 chance of
>> dying? Got two of them thangs, likely they are additive. Did I get
>> that right? Nah, can't be. That's too high... NO WAY!!!!
>>
>>
>> And, lastly, the government is just plain damned, either way.
>>
>>
>> I have written a couple of short articles on the things we are doing to
>> boost our immune system and to minimize our risks of getting Covid-19.
>> If any of you are interested, send me an e-mail - I'll send them to
>> you.
>>
>>
>> I think I'll go for a ride in our Daytona Coupe and forget about all
>> this (Pantera is getting a new interior even as I type so can't take it
>> out today).
>>
>>
>> Twisty roads, here I come!
>>
>>
>> Stephen Nelson
>>
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: DeTomaso <detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com> On Behalf Of
>> Julian Kift
>> Sent: Thursday, March 12, 2020 9:20 PM
>> To: Mike & Elizabeth Thomas <mbefthomas2 at gmail.com>; Mike Drew
>> <MikeLDrew at aol.com>
>> Cc: detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
>> Subject: Re: [DeTomaso] Any change in plans for the Fun Rally with the
>> COVID-19 outbreak?
>>
>>
>> So are more than 250 people registered to attend the Fun Rally?
>>
>>
>> There's a lot of people playing down COVID-19 and yes the mortality
>> rates are fairly low at ~2%, but if you don't contain it a lot of
>> people get infected and you have a higher number of deaths.
>>
>>
>> This is the only article I've seen to date that actually attempts to
>> put some data and statistics to the issue, it's long but worth the
>> read;
>> [1]https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-
>> die-f4d3d9cd99ca
>>
>>
>> The problem is government is damned if it does nothing and it really
>> turns into a US pandemic and damned if it halts everything and actually
>> stems the problem as the opposition will say it was all over nothing!
>>
>>
>> Julian
>>
>>
>> ________________________________
>>
>> From: DeTomaso <[2]detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com> on behalf
>> of Mike Drew via DeTomaso <[3]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com>
>>
>> Sent: Thursday, March 12, 2020 6:40 PM
>>
>> To: Mike & Elizabeth Thomas <[4]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com>
>>
>> Cc: [5]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
>> <[6]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com>
>>
>> Subject: Re: [DeTomaso] Any change in plans for the Fun Rally with the
>> COVID-19 outbreak?
>>
>>
>> Mike,
>>
>>
>> I asked Josette the question yesterday. This is what she said:
>>
>>
>> "If we cancelled because nobody was coming or any other reason we would
>> have to pay them the hotel rooms and our food and beverage minimum.
>>
>> If they cancel we should be off the hook."
>>
>>
>> Not addressed is the third possibility--that the government issues
>> restrictions that prohibit large gatherings. California just today
>> prohibited any gathering of 250 or more people indefinitely.
>>
>>
>> We are still planning on going.
>>
>>
>> FWIW I spoke today with a POCA member who is an ER doc and his summary
>> of the Covid19 crisis was, "It's all BS". People are dropping like
>> flies from the ordinary flu, just as they do every year, and nobody
>> bats an eye. According to the CDC, something like 50,000 Americans have
>> died from the regular flu just since September! Where is the panic
>> about that?
>>
>>
>> A couple of dozen Americans die from this cousin of the flu and the
>> media causes the world to go crazy. Grrr.....
>>
>>
>> Mike
>>
>>
>> Sent from my iPad
>>
>>
>>> On Mar 12, 2020, at 18:23, Mike & Elizabeth Thomas
>> <[7]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>
>>> Just asking the question. It looks like Arizona has not yet been
>> hit
>>
>>> very hard but here in the Seattle area it's very real. We've had
>> three
>>
>>> event cancelled on us just this week.
>>
>>>
>>
>>>
>>
>>> Hope everybody is staying healthy. Let's get this thing behind us.
>>
>>>
>>
>>>
>>
>>> Mike Thomas
>>
>>>
>>
>>> Panteras Northwest
>>
>>>
>>
>>>
>>
>>> Our email address has changed: Please use
>> [1][8]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com for
>>
>>> all new messages, thanks!
>>
>>>
>>
>>> References
>>
>>>
>>
>>> 1. [9]mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>
>>>
>>
>>>
>>
>>> Detomaso Email List is not managed by POCA Posted emails must
>> not
>>
>>> exceed 1.5 Megabytes DeTomaso mailing list
>>
>>> [10]DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
>>
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>>
>>>
>>
>>> To manage your subscription (change email address, unsubscribe, etc.)
>> use the links above.
>>
>>>
>>
>>> Members who post to this list grant license to the list to forward
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>> or approve the archiving of list messages.
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>>
>>
>>
>> Detomaso Email List is not managed by POCA Posted emails must not
>> exceed 1.5 Megabytes DeTomaso mailing list
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>> [13]http://server.detomasolist.com/mailman/listinfo/detomaso
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>>
>> To manage your subscription (change email address, unsubscribe, etc.)
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>>
>> Members who post to this list grant license to the list to forward any
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>> list. They also grant the list owner permission to maintain an archive
>> or approve the archiving of list messages.
>>
>> References
>>
>> 1. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
>> 2. mailto:detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com
>> 3. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
>> 4. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
>> 5. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
>> 6. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
>> 7. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
>> 8. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
>> 9. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
>> 10. mailto:DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
>> 11. http://server.detomasolist.com/mailman/listinfo/detomaso
>> 12. mailto:DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
>> 13. http://server.detomasolist.com/mailman/listinfo/detomaso
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>>
>>
>> Detomaso Email List is not managed by POCA Posted emails must not
>> exceed 1.5 Megabytes DeTomaso mailing list
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>>
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>
> --
> Dave Londry
> TRGuys.com
>
> davel at trguys.com
> Cell 604-721-2278
> Landline 604-589-9183
> Skype embeddedspaces
>
>
> _______________________________________________
>
>
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-------------- next part --------------
I think that in addition to the rather terrifying mortality rate is the
fact that this virus spreads extremely quickly and easily. And current
predictions (even if not stated widely yet) are that with a year or two
over 80% of the world population could be infected. Add to this that
vaccines for corona-type viruses are extremely difficult to synthesize,
and are also much less affective in aging people (the ones who need it
most--US). An effective mass-produced vaccine is likely at least a year
away.
And of course, anyone with any immune-deficiencies, heart condition,
anyone undergoing Chemo, anyone with a susceptibility to respiratory
illnesses will be at the top of the death list.
It seems to be "early" stages, but I think it is just a matter of time.
We all need to take precautions to protect ourselves, the ones we love
and those we don't even know.
The world is changing, and Mother Nature is speaking clearly.
Mark Charlton
[1]pantera01826 at rogers.com
On Mar 14, 2020, at 5:05 PM, Mike & Elizabeth Thomas
<[2]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com> wrote:
The issue as I've heard in Italy is that there are many more
multigenerational households where your older, most vulnerable folks
are mixed up close with the rest of the family on a daily basis.
Our email address has changed: Please use [3]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com for
all new messages, thanks!
-----Original Message-----
From: DeTomaso <[4]detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com> On Behalf
Of Dave Londry
Sent: Friday, March 13, 2020 6:15 PM
To: [5]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
Subject: Re: [DeTomaso] Any change in plans for the Fun Rally with the
COVID-19 outbreak?
And while you're on an analytical bent, try the Italian numbers.
Much worse.
dave
On 2020-03-13 7:09 a.m., [6]steve at snclocks.com wrote:
Good morning Julian. I trust you are doing well.
You are absolutely right - that is a long article, and the
current
estimates of mortality are around 2%. Or 3%, but 2% is a
reasonable
talking point. Compared to a rate of around 0.2% for the flu.
So, 10
times the risk of dying compared to the flu. Or, 1 in 50. Of
the
general population. But, well, Hmmmm. I am sure most of you
have
heard that those over 60 (raise your hands) have a higher risk.
Let's
look at some stats from the Chinese situation:
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability
of
dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs
depending
on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT
represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing
condition.
Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing
condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.
PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
Cardiovascular disease
13.2%
10.5%
Diabetes
9.2%
7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease
8.0%
6.3%
Hypertension
8.4%
6.0%
Cancer
7.6%
5.6%
no pre-existing conditions
0.9%
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability
of
dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have
to add
up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by
condition.
Right. So, somewhere around 10% for those with cardiovascular
issues
(raise your hands), and 8% with Diabetes (right - more hands?),
and
hypertension at around 7%... OK, put your hands down. But,
gads, if
you have one of them "Comorbidities" thangs - well, a 1 in 10
chance of
dying? Got two of them thangs, likely they are additive. Did I
get
that right? Nah, can't be. That's too high... NO WAY!!!!
And, lastly, the government is just plain damned, either way.
I have written a couple of short articles on the things we are
doing to
boost our immune system and to minimize our risks of getting
Covid-19.
If any of you are interested, send me an e-mail - I'll send them
to
you.
I think I'll go for a ride in our Daytona Coupe and forget about
all
this (Pantera is getting a new interior even as I type so can't
take it
out today).
Twisty roads, here I come!
Stephen Nelson
-----Original Message-----
From: DeTomaso <[7]detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com> On
Behalf Of
Julian Kift
Sent: Thursday, March 12, 2020 9:20 PM
To: Mike & Elizabeth Thomas <[8]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com>; Mike Drew
<[9]MikeLDrew at aol.com>
Cc: [10]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
Subject: Re: [DeTomaso] Any change in plans for the Fun Rally
with the
COVID-19 outbreak?
So are more than 250 people registered to attend the Fun Rally?
There's a lot of people playing down COVID-19 and yes the
mortality
rates are fairly low at ~2%, but if you don't contain it a lot of
people get infected and you have a higher number of deaths.
This is the only article I've seen to date that actually attempts
to
put some data and statistics to the issue, it's long but worth
the
read;
[1][11]https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-pe
ople-will-
die-f4d3d9cd99ca
The problem is government is damned if it does nothing and it
really
turns into a US pandemic and damned if it halts everything and
actually
stems the problem as the opposition will say it was all over
nothing!
Julian
________________________________
From: DeTomaso <[2][12]detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com>
on behalf
of Mike Drew via DeTomaso
<[3][13]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 12, 2020 6:40 PM
To: Mike & Elizabeth Thomas <[4][14]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com>
Cc: [5][15]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
<[6][16]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com>
Subject: Re: [DeTomaso] Any change in plans for the Fun Rally
with the
COVID-19 outbreak?
Mike,
I asked Josette the question yesterday. This is what she said:
"If we cancelled because nobody was coming or any other reason we
would
have to pay them the hotel rooms and our food and beverage
minimum.
If they cancel we should be off the hook."
Not addressed is the third possibility--that the government
issues
restrictions that prohibit large gatherings. California just
today
prohibited any gathering of 250 or more people indefinitely.
We are still planning on going.
FWIW I spoke today with a POCA member who is an ER doc and his
summary
of the Covid19 crisis was, "It's all BS". People are dropping
like
flies from the ordinary flu, just as they do every year, and
nobody
bats an eye. According to the CDC, something like 50,000
Americans have
died from the regular flu just since September! Where is the
panic
about that?
A couple of dozen Americans die from this cousin of the flu and
the
media causes the world to go crazy. Grrr.....
Mike
Sent from my iPad
On Mar 12, 2020, at 18:23, Mike & Elizabeth Thomas
<[7][17]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com> wrote:
Just asking the question. It looks like Arizona has not yet been
hit
very hard but here in the Seattle area it's very real. We've had
three
event cancelled on us just this week.
Hope everybody is staying healthy. Let's get this thing behind us.
Mike Thomas
Panteras Northwest
Our email address has changed: Please use
[1][8][18]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com for
all new messages, thanks!
References
1. [9][19]mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
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References
1.
[24]https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-w
ill-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
2. [25]mailto:detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com
3. [26]mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
4. [27]mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
5. [28]mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
6. [29]mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
7. [30]mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
8. [31]mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
9. [32]mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
10. [33]mailto:DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
11. [34]http://server.detomasolist.com/mailman/listinfo/detomaso
12. [35]mailto:DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
13. [36]http://server.detomasolist.com/mailman/listinfo/detomaso
_______________________________________________
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--
Dave Londry
[39]TRGuys.com
davel at trguys.com
Cell 604-721-2278
Landline 604-589-9183
Skype embeddedspaces
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References
1. mailto:pantera01826 at rogers.com
2. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
3. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
4. mailto:detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com
5. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
6. mailto:steve at snclocks.com
7. mailto:detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com
8. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
9. mailto:MikeLDrew at aol.com
10. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
11. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-
12. mailto:detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com
13. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
14. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
15. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
16. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
17. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
18. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
19. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
20. mailto:DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
21. http://server.detomasolist.com/mailman/listinfo/detomaso
22. mailto:DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
23. http://server.detomasolist.com/mailman/listinfo/detomaso
24. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
25. mailto:detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com
26. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
27. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
28. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
29. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
30. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
31. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
32. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
33. mailto:DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
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35. mailto:DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
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