[DeTomaso] Any change in plans for the Fun Rally with the COVID-19 outbreak?
steve at snclocks.com
steve at snclocks.com
Sun Mar 15 12:28:00 EDT 2020
The good news is that China is apparently getting things under control. Of course, the average person on the street has more protective face masks than most ED departments, and in China, they can actually buy more, unlike US hospitals. Oh, and the Chinese are spraying down public areas to decrease exposure. And severely limiting gatherings.
Simple math. If 50% of the US comes down with the virus in the next year, and 2% die, that's 3 million folks. Or, well, 66 times the typical flu kill of 50,000. I hope this does not prove out, but face it, many folks are assuming a 70% infection rate and a much higher mortality rate.
I dearly hope that every one of you who are over 60 understand these statistics - especially any that are overweight, obese, or have other medical issues.
Let's all do what we can to be here next year kibitzing on this forum.
Stephen Nelson
-----Original Message-----
From: DeTomaso <detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com> On Behalf Of MARK CHARLTON
Sent: Sunday, March 15, 2020 6:59 AM
To: Pantera Mail List <detomaso at server.detomasolist.com>
Subject: Re: [DeTomaso] Any change in plans for the Fun Rally with the COVID-19 outbreak?
I think that in addition to the rather terrifying mortality rate is the fact that this virus spreads extremely quickly and easily. And current predictions (even if not stated widely yet) are that with a year or two over 80% of the world population could be infected. Add to this that vaccines for corona-type viruses are extremely difficult to synthesize, and are also much less affective in aging people (the ones who need it most—US). An effective mass-produced vaccine is likely at least a year away.
And of course, anyone with any immune-deficiencies, heart condition, anyone undergoing Chemo, anyone with a susceptibility to respiratory illnesses will be at the top of the death list.
It seems to be “early” stages, but I think it is just a matter of time. We all need to take precautions to protect ourselves, the ones we love and those we don’t even know.
The world is changing, and Mother Nature is speaking clearly.
Mark Charlton
pantera01826 at rogers.com
> On Mar 14, 2020, at 5:05 PM, Mike & Elizabeth Thomas <mbefthomas2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> The issue as I've heard in Italy is that there are many more multigenerational households where your older, most vulnerable folks are mixed up close with the rest of the family on a daily basis.
>
> Our email address has changed: Please use mbefthomas2 at gmail.com for all new messages, thanks!
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: DeTomaso <detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com> On Behalf Of
> Dave Londry
> Sent: Friday, March 13, 2020 6:15 PM
> To: detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
> Subject: Re: [DeTomaso] Any change in plans for the Fun Rally with the COVID-19 outbreak?
>
> And while you're on an analytical bent, try the Italian numbers.
> Much worse.
> dave
>
> On 2020-03-13 7:09 a.m., steve at snclocks.com wrote:
>> Good morning Julian. I trust you are doing well.
>>
>>
>> You are absolutely right - that is a long article, and the current
>> estimates of mortality are around 2%. Or 3%, but 2% is a reasonable
>> talking point. Compared to a rate of around 0.2% for the flu. So, 10
>> times the risk of dying compared to the flu. Or, 1 in 50. Of the
>> general population. But, well, Hmmmm. I am sure most of you have
>> heard that those over 60 (raise your hands) have a higher risk. Let's
>> look at some stats from the Chinese situation:
>>
>>
>> COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
>>
>> *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of
>> dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending
>> on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT
>> represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition.
>> Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing
>> condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.
>>
>> PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
>>
>> DEATH RATE
>> confirmed cases
>>
>> DEATH RATE
>> all cases
>>
>> Cardiovascular disease
>>
>> 13.2%
>>
>> 10.5%
>>
>> Diabetes
>>
>> 9.2%
>>
>> 7.3%
>>
>> Chronic respiratory disease
>>
>> 8.0%
>>
>> 6.3%
>>
>> Hypertension
>>
>> 8.4%
>>
>> 6.0%
>>
>> Cancer
>>
>> 7.6%
>>
>> 5.6%
>>
>> no pre-existing conditions
>>
>> 0.9%
>>
>> *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of
>> dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add
>> up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by condition.
>>
>>
>> Right. So, somewhere around 10% for those with cardiovascular issues
>> (raise your hands), and 8% with Diabetes (right - more hands?), and
>> hypertension at around 7%... OK, put your hands down. But, gads, if
>> you have one of them "Comorbidities" thangs - well, a 1 in 10 chance of
>> dying? Got two of them thangs, likely they are additive. Did I get
>> that right? Nah, can't be. That's too high... NO WAY!!!!
>>
>>
>> And, lastly, the government is just plain damned, either way.
>>
>>
>> I have written a couple of short articles on the things we are doing to
>> boost our immune system and to minimize our risks of getting Covid-19.
>> If any of you are interested, send me an e-mail - I'll send them to
>> you.
>>
>>
>> I think I'll go for a ride in our Daytona Coupe and forget about all
>> this (Pantera is getting a new interior even as I type so can't take it
>> out today).
>>
>>
>> Twisty roads, here I come!
>>
>>
>> Stephen Nelson
>>
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: DeTomaso <detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com> On Behalf Of
>> Julian Kift
>> Sent: Thursday, March 12, 2020 9:20 PM
>> To: Mike & Elizabeth Thomas <mbefthomas2 at gmail.com>; Mike Drew
>> <MikeLDrew at aol.com>
>> Cc: detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
>> Subject: Re: [DeTomaso] Any change in plans for the Fun Rally with the
>> COVID-19 outbreak?
>>
>>
>> So are more than 250 people registered to attend the Fun Rally?
>>
>>
>> There's a lot of people playing down COVID-19 and yes the mortality
>> rates are fairly low at ~2%, but if you don't contain it a lot of
>> people get infected and you have a higher number of deaths.
>>
>>
>> This is the only article I've seen to date that actually attempts to
>> put some data and statistics to the issue, it's long but worth the
>> read;
>> [1]https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-
>> die-f4d3d9cd99ca
>>
>>
>> The problem is government is damned if it does nothing and it really
>> turns into a US pandemic and damned if it halts everything and actually
>> stems the problem as the opposition will say it was all over nothing!
>>
>>
>> Julian
>>
>>
>> ________________________________
>>
>> From: DeTomaso <[2]detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com> on behalf
>> of Mike Drew via DeTomaso <[3]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com>
>>
>> Sent: Thursday, March 12, 2020 6:40 PM
>>
>> To: Mike & Elizabeth Thomas <[4]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com>
>>
>> Cc: [5]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
>> <[6]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com>
>>
>> Subject: Re: [DeTomaso] Any change in plans for the Fun Rally with the
>> COVID-19 outbreak?
>>
>>
>> Mike,
>>
>>
>> I asked Josette the question yesterday. This is what she said:
>>
>>
>> "If we cancelled because nobody was coming or any other reason we would
>> have to pay them the hotel rooms and our food and beverage minimum.
>>
>> If they cancel we should be off the hook."
>>
>>
>> Not addressed is the third possibility--that the government issues
>> restrictions that prohibit large gatherings. California just today
>> prohibited any gathering of 250 or more people indefinitely.
>>
>>
>> We are still planning on going.
>>
>>
>> FWIW I spoke today with a POCA member who is an ER doc and his summary
>> of the Covid19 crisis was, "It's all BS". People are dropping like
>> flies from the ordinary flu, just as they do every year, and nobody
>> bats an eye. According to the CDC, something like 50,000 Americans have
>> died from the regular flu just since September! Where is the panic
>> about that?
>>
>>
>> A couple of dozen Americans die from this cousin of the flu and the
>> media causes the world to go crazy. Grrr.....
>>
>>
>> Mike
>>
>>
>> Sent from my iPad
>>
>>
>>> On Mar 12, 2020, at 18:23, Mike & Elizabeth Thomas
>> <[7]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>
>>> Just asking the question. It looks like Arizona has not yet been
>> hit
>>
>>> very hard but here in the Seattle area it's very real. We've had
>> three
>>
>>> event cancelled on us just this week.
>>
>>>
>>
>>>
>>
>>> Hope everybody is staying healthy. Let's get this thing behind us.
>>
>>>
>>
>>>
>>
>>> Mike Thomas
>>
>>>
>>
>>> Panteras Northwest
>>
>>>
>>
>>>
>>
>>> Our email address has changed: Please use
>> [1][8]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com for
>>
>>> all new messages, thanks!
>>
>>>
>>
>>> References
>>
>>>
>>
>>> 1. [9]mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>
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>>
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>> References
>>
>> 1. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
>> 2. mailto:detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com
>> 3. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
>> 4. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
>> 5. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
>> 6. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
>> 7. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
>> 8. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
>> 9. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
>> 10. mailto:DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
>> 11. http://server.detomasolist.com/mailman/listinfo/detomaso
>> 12. mailto:DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
>> 13. http://server.detomasolist.com/mailman/listinfo/detomaso
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> --
> Dave Londry
> TRGuys.com
>
> davel at trguys.com
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