[DeTomaso] Any change in plans for the Fun Rally with the COVID-19 outbreak?
Dave Londry
davel at trguys.com
Fri Mar 13 21:15:04 EDT 2020
And while you're on an analytical bent, try the Italian numbers.
Much worse.
dave
On 2020-03-13 7:09 a.m., steve at snclocks.com wrote:
> Good morning Julian. I trust you are doing well.
>
>
> You are absolutely right - that is a long article, and the current
> estimates of mortality are around 2%. Or 3%, but 2% is a reasonable
> talking point. Compared to a rate of around 0.2% for the flu. So, 10
> times the risk of dying compared to the flu. Or, 1 in 50. Of the
> general population. But, well, Hmmmm. I am sure most of you have
> heard that those over 60 (raise your hands) have a higher risk. Let's
> look at some stats from the Chinese situation:
>
>
> COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
>
> *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of
> dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending
> on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT
> represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition.
> Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing
> condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.
>
> PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
>
> DEATH RATE
> confirmed cases
>
> DEATH RATE
> all cases
>
> Cardiovascular disease
>
> 13.2%
>
> 10.5%
>
> Diabetes
>
> 9.2%
>
> 7.3%
>
> Chronic respiratory disease
>
> 8.0%
>
> 6.3%
>
> Hypertension
>
> 8.4%
>
> 6.0%
>
> Cancer
>
> 7.6%
>
> 5.6%
>
> no pre-existing conditions
>
> 0.9%
>
> *Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of
> dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add
> up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by condition.
>
>
> Right. So, somewhere around 10% for those with cardiovascular issues
> (raise your hands), and 8% with Diabetes (right - more hands?), and
> hypertension at around 7%... OK, put your hands down. But, gads, if
> you have one of them "Comorbidities" thangs - well, a 1 in 10 chance of
> dying? Got two of them thangs, likely they are additive. Did I get
> that right? Nah, can't be. That's too high... NO WAY!!!!
>
>
> And, lastly, the government is just plain damned, either way.
>
>
> I have written a couple of short articles on the things we are doing to
> boost our immune system and to minimize our risks of getting Covid-19.
> If any of you are interested, send me an e-mail - I'll send them to
> you.
>
>
> I think I'll go for a ride in our Daytona Coupe and forget about all
> this (Pantera is getting a new interior even as I type so can't take it
> out today).
>
>
> Twisty roads, here I come!
>
>
> Stephen Nelson
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: DeTomaso <detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com> On Behalf Of
> Julian Kift
> Sent: Thursday, March 12, 2020 9:20 PM
> To: Mike & Elizabeth Thomas <mbefthomas2 at gmail.com>; Mike Drew
> <MikeLDrew at aol.com>
> Cc: detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
> Subject: Re: [DeTomaso] Any change in plans for the Fun Rally with the
> COVID-19 outbreak?
>
>
> So are more than 250 people registered to attend the Fun Rally?
>
>
> There's a lot of people playing down COVID-19 and yes the mortality
> rates are fairly low at ~2%, but if you don't contain it a lot of
> people get infected and you have a higher number of deaths.
>
>
> This is the only article I've seen to date that actually attempts to
> put some data and statistics to the issue, it's long but worth the
> read;
> [1]https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-
> die-f4d3d9cd99ca
>
>
> The problem is government is damned if it does nothing and it really
> turns into a US pandemic and damned if it halts everything and actually
> stems the problem as the opposition will say it was all over nothing!
>
>
> Julian
>
>
> ________________________________
>
> From: DeTomaso <[2]detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com> on behalf
> of Mike Drew via DeTomaso <[3]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com>
>
> Sent: Thursday, March 12, 2020 6:40 PM
>
> To: Mike & Elizabeth Thomas <[4]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com>
>
> Cc: [5]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
> <[6]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com>
>
> Subject: Re: [DeTomaso] Any change in plans for the Fun Rally with the
> COVID-19 outbreak?
>
>
> Mike,
>
>
> I asked Josette the question yesterday. This is what she said:
>
>
> "If we cancelled because nobody was coming or any other reason we would
> have to pay them the hotel rooms and our food and beverage minimum.
>
> If they cancel we should be off the hook."
>
>
> Not addressed is the third possibility--that the government issues
> restrictions that prohibit large gatherings. California just today
> prohibited any gathering of 250 or more people indefinitely.
>
>
> We are still planning on going.
>
>
> FWIW I spoke today with a POCA member who is an ER doc and his summary
> of the Covid19 crisis was, "It's all BS". People are dropping like
> flies from the ordinary flu, just as they do every year, and nobody
> bats an eye. According to the CDC, something like 50,000 Americans have
> died from the regular flu just since September! Where is the panic
> about that?
>
>
> A couple of dozen Americans die from this cousin of the flu and the
> media causes the world to go crazy. Grrr.....
>
>
> Mike
>
>
> Sent from my iPad
>
>
> > On Mar 12, 2020, at 18:23, Mike & Elizabeth Thomas
> <[7]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> >
>
> > Just asking the question. It looks like Arizona has not yet been
> hit
>
> > very hard but here in the Seattle area it's very real. We've had
> three
>
> > event cancelled on us just this week.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Hope everybody is staying healthy. Let's get this thing behind us.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Mike Thomas
>
> >
>
> > Panteras Northwest
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Our email address has changed: Please use
> [1][8]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com for
>
> > all new messages, thanks!
>
> >
>
> > References
>
> >
>
> > 1. [9]mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
>
> > _______________________________________________
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Detomaso Email List is not managed by POCA Posted emails must not
>
> > exceed 1.5 Megabytes DeTomaso mailing list
>
> > [10]DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
>
> > [11]http://server.detomasolist.com/mailman/listinfo/detomaso
>
> >
>
> > To manage your subscription (change email address, unsubscribe, etc.)
> use the links above.
>
> >
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> > Members who post to this list grant license to the list to forward
> any message posted here to all past, current, or future members of the
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> or approve the archiving of list messages.
>
>
> _______________________________________________
>
>
>
> Detomaso Email List is not managed by POCA Posted emails must not
> exceed 1.5 Megabytes DeTomaso mailing list
> [12]DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
> [13]http://server.detomasolist.com/mailman/listinfo/detomaso
>
>
> To manage your subscription (change email address, unsubscribe, etc.)
> use the links above.
>
>
> Members who post to this list grant license to the list to forward any
> message posted here to all past, current, or future members of the
> list. They also grant the list owner permission to maintain an archive
> or approve the archiving of list messages.
>
> References
>
> 1. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
> 2. mailto:detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com
> 3. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
> 4. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
> 5. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
> 6. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
> 7. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
> 8. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
> 9. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
> 10. mailto:DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
> 11. http://server.detomasolist.com/mailman/listinfo/detomaso
> 12. mailto:DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
> 13. http://server.detomasolist.com/mailman/listinfo/detomaso
>
>
> _______________________________________________
>
>
> Detomaso Email List is not managed by POCA
> Posted emails must not exceed 1.5 Megabytes
> DeTomaso mailing list
> DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
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>
> To manage your subscription (change email address, unsubscribe, etc.) use the links above.
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> Members who post to this list grant license to the list to forward any message posted here to all past, current, or future members of the list. They also grant the list owner permission to maintain an archive or approve the archiving of list messages.
--
Dave Londry
TRGuys.com
davel at trguys.com
Cell 604-721-2278
Landline 604-589-9183
Skype embeddedspaces
-------------- next part --------------
And while you're on an analytical bent, try the Italian numbers.
Much worse.
dave
On 2020-03-13 7:09 a.m., [1]steve at snclocks.com wrote:
Good morning Julian. I trust you are doing well.
You are absolutely right - that is a long article, and the current
estimates of mortality are around 2%. Or 3%, but 2% is a reasonable
talking point. Compared to a rate of around 0.2% for the flu. So, 10
times the risk of dying compared to the flu. Or, 1 in 50. Of the
general population. But, well, Hmmmm. I am sure most of you have
heard that those over 60 (raise your hands) have a higher risk. Let's
look at some stats from the Chinese situation:
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of
dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending
on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT
represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition.
Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing
condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.
PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
Cardiovascular disease
13.2%
10.5%
Diabetes
9.2%
7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease
8.0%
6.3%
Hypertension
8.4%
6.0%
Cancer
7.6%
5.6%
no pre-existing conditions
0.9%
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of
dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add
up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by condition.
Right. So, somewhere around 10% for those with cardiovascular issues
(raise your hands), and 8% with Diabetes (right - more hands?), and
hypertension at around 7%... OK, put your hands down. But, gads, if
you have one of them "Comorbidities" thangs - well, a 1 in 10 chance of
dying? Got two of them thangs, likely they are additive. Did I get
that right? Nah, can't be. That's too high... NO WAY!!!!
And, lastly, the government is just plain damned, either way.
I have written a couple of short articles on the things we are doing to
boost our immune system and to minimize our risks of getting Covid-19.
If any of you are interested, send me an e-mail - I'll send them to
you.
I think I'll go for a ride in our Daytona Coupe and forget about all
this (Pantera is getting a new interior even as I type so can't take it
out today).
Twisty roads, here I come!
Stephen Nelson
-----Original Message-----
From: DeTomaso [2]<detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com> On Behalf Of
Julian Kift
Sent: Thursday, March 12, 2020 9:20 PM
To: Mike & Elizabeth Thomas [3]<mbefthomas2 at gmail.com>; Mike Drew
[4]<MikeLDrew at aol.com>
Cc: [5]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
Subject: Re: [DeTomaso] Any change in plans for the Fun Rally with the
COVID-19 outbreak?
So are more than 250 people registered to attend the Fun Rally?
There's a lot of people playing down COVID-19 and yes the mortality
rates are fairly low at ~2%, but if you don't contain it a lot of
people get infected and you have a higher number of deaths.
This is the only article I've seen to date that actually attempts to
put some data and statistics to the issue, it's long but worth the
read;
[1][6]https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-
die-f4d3d9cd99ca
The problem is government is damned if it does nothing and it really
turns into a US pandemic and damned if it halts everything and actually
stems the problem as the opposition will say it was all over nothing!
Julian
________________________________
From: DeTomaso [7]<[2]detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com> on behalf
of Mike Drew via DeTomaso [8]<[3]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 12, 2020 6:40 PM
To: Mike & Elizabeth Thomas [9]<[4]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com>
Cc: [[10]5]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
[11]<[6]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com>
Subject: Re: [DeTomaso] Any change in plans for the Fun Rally with the
COVID-19 outbreak?
Mike,
I asked Josette the question yesterday. This is what she said:
"If we cancelled because nobody was coming or any other reason we would
have to pay them the hotel rooms and our food and beverage minimum.
If they cancel we should be off the hook."
Not addressed is the third possibility--that the government issues
restrictions that prohibit large gatherings. California just today
prohibited any gathering of 250 or more people indefinitely.
We are still planning on going.
FWIW I spoke today with a POCA member who is an ER doc and his summary
of the Covid19 crisis was, "It's all BS". People are dropping like
flies from the ordinary flu, just as they do every year, and nobody
bats an eye. According to the CDC, something like 50,000 Americans have
died from the regular flu just since September! Where is the panic
about that?
A couple of dozen Americans die from this cousin of the flu and the
media causes the world to go crazy. Grrr.....
Mike
Sent from my iPad
> On Mar 12, 2020, at 18:23, Mike & Elizabeth Thomas
[12]<[7]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Just asking the question. It looks like Arizona has not yet been
hit
> very hard but here in the Seattle area it's very real. We've had
three
> event cancelled on us just this week.
>
>
> Hope everybody is staying healthy. Let's get this thing behind us.
>
>
> Mike Thomas
>
> Panteras Northwest
>
>
> Our email address has changed: Please use
[1][[13]8]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com for
> all new messages, thanks!
>
> References
>
> 1. [9][14]mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
> _______________________________________________
>
>
> Detomaso Email List is not managed by POCA Posted emails must not
> exceed 1.5 Megabytes DeTomaso mailing list
> [[15]10]DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
> [11][16]http://server.detomasolist.com/mailman/listinfo/detomaso
>
> To manage your subscription (change email address, unsubscribe, etc.)
use the links above.
>
> Members who post to this list grant license to the list to forward
any message posted here to all past, current, or future members of the
list. They also grant the list owner permission to maintain an archive
or approve the archiving of list messages.
_______________________________________________
Detomaso Email List is not managed by POCA Posted emails must not
exceed 1.5 Megabytes DeTomaso mailing list
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Members who post to this list grant license to the list to forward any
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list. They also grant the list owner permission to maintain an archive
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References
1. [19]https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-di
e-f4d3d9cd99ca
2. [20]mailto:detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com
3. [21]mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
4. [22]mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
5. [23]mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
6. [24]mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
7. [25]mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
8. [26]mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
9. [27]mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
10. [28]mailto:DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
11. [29]http://server.detomasolist.com/mailman/listinfo/detomaso
12. [30]mailto:DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
13. [31]http://server.detomasolist.com/mailman/listinfo/detomaso
_______________________________________________
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osted here to all past, current, or future members of the list. They also grant
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t messages.
--
Dave Londry
TRGuys.com
[34]davel at trguys.com
Cell 604-721-2278
Landline 604-589-9183
Skype embeddedspaces
References
1. mailto:steve at snclocks.com
2. mailto:detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com
3. mailto:mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
4. mailto:MikeLDrew at aol.com
5. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
6. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will
7. mailto:[2]detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com
8. mailto:[3]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
9. mailto:[4]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
10. mailto:5]detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
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12. mailto:[7]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
13. mailto:8]mbefthomas2 at gmail.com
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15. mailto:10]DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
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17. mailto:12]DeTomaso at server.detomasolist.com
18. http://server.detomasolist.com/mailman/listinfo/detomaso
19. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
20. mailto:detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com
21. mailto:detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
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