[DeTomaso] NPC: Tesla in space
Julian Kift
julian_kift at hotmail.com
Mon Feb 12 15:00:29 EST 2018
Charlie,
Not too loudly, this is a Pantera forum and some people will adopt that mantra for their restoration ala Gas Monkey Garage!
All I could envisage when reading the article was an open top car with stereo blazing Elton John's 'Rocket Man'; then sanity struck and I remembered sound doesn't travel in a vacuum...
You have to admit there is a certain irony in how much energy was expended and fossil fuel (Rocket propellant RP-1) burned to put a zero emission vehicle in space that will ultimately disintegrate and pollute the non-atmosphere!
Julian
________________________________
From: DeTomaso <detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com> on behalf of Charles McCall <charlesmccall at gmail.com>
Sent: Monday, February 12, 2018 11:47 AM
To: 'Larry-Ohio Time Corp'; detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
Subject: Re: [DeTomaso] NPC: Tesla in space
I agree with Dr. Chuck... interesting reading.
Hey, if you have the $$, why not, even if you don't know how it'll turn out?
-----Original Message-----
From: DeTomaso [mailto:detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com] On Behalf
Of Larry-Ohio Time Corp
Sent: lunes, 12 de febrero de 2018 20:14
To: detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
Subject: [DeTomaso] NPC: Tesla in space
If the SpaceX <https://newatlas.com/falcon-heavy-launch/53258/> Falcon
Heavy is the world's most powerful rocket, then the Tesla Roadster that it
shot into interplanetary space holds the record for the fastest car in
history. This cosmic convertible will orbit around the Sun once every 1.6
years, but how long will it continue to do so, and what will be its fate?
Will it still look as pristine a billion years from now as it did in the
videos beamed back to Earth? Probably not.
At the moment, there are five US spacecraft speeding out of our Solar
System, never to return. Billions of years from now, when our Sun has turned
into a red giant and engulfed the Earth in nuclear fire, the Pioneer,
<https://newatlas.com/voyager-40th-anniversary-retrospective-gallery/50744/>
Voyager, and <https://newatlas.com/new-horizons-pluto-flyby-nasa/34777/>
New Horizons probes will still be traveling through our galaxy like a
quintet of robotic Odysseus's.
Even back in our system and revolving about our Earth are satellites that
will still be around for many millions of years. For example, one
Earth-orbiting satellite, <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LAGEOS> LAGEOS-1,
is a passive laser reflector satellite that will not only remain circling
our planet for 8.4 million years, but will remain functional for most of
that time.
<javascript:void(0)>
With a track record like that, it looks as if the Tesla Roadster that
rocketed into space on February 6, 2018 will be cruising happily among the
stars as a permanent monument to the early days of commercial deep space
travel. It's a nice thought that the Starman mannequin driver and his cherry
red ride will still be around long after the pyramids have crumbled to sand.
Except that's not going to happen. In fact, the Starman and the Roadster are
in for a very unpleasant time and may not be in very good shape after a few
years. And their lifespan, while huge by human standards, may be rather
limited.
At the moment, the Falcon Heavy second stage and the Roadster attached to it
are in an orbit that
<https://mobile.twitter.com/planet4589/status/961394843648954368> Jonathan
McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics has recalculated
from Elon Musk's rather generous
<https://newatlas.com/spacex-images-starman-asteroid/53301/> rough estimate
of a few hours after liftoff. According to McDowell, the second stage is a
Hohmann transfer orbit, which is most economical orbit in terms of energy
for going from one place to another.
<javascript:void(0)>
Where Musk estimated that the second stage was circling the Sun at a
distance between 91 million mi (150 million km) and 240 million mi (390
million km) with an inclination of 29º to the ecliptic, McDowell calculates
that its orbit is between 92 million mi (148 million km) and 158 million mi
(255 million km) with an inclination of 1.1º and a period of about 1.6
years. This puts its farthest distance from the sun just beyond the orbit of
Mars.
The popular idea is that the Roadster will orbit the Sun for hundreds of
millions, if not billions of years, but that isn't the case. The second
stage and Roadster are now essentially a
<http://www.science20.com/robert_walker/will_elon_musks_cherry_red_tesla_roa
dster_orbit_for_a_billion_years_falcon_heavy_test_launch-230358> near-Earth
object (NEO), much like the asteroids that space agencies keep an eye on
just in case a large one is going to hit the Earth.
One thing that marks NEOs is that they don't have very long careers. They're
interplanetary jaywalkers with all the hazards that implies. Planets and
asteroids in circular orbits stay out of each other's way and are relatively
stable, but NEOs, and the Roadster, are in eccentric orbits that cross the
orbits of the planets. This makes their trajectories very unstable.
<javascript:void(0)>
The second stage will cross the orbits of Earth and Mars and its trajectory
will certainly be perturbed by Jupiter's gravitational field, so there is a
small chance that it might strike Earth or Mars many thousands of years from
now, though it's so small that it will burn up in the atmosphere. Another
possibility is that it might get flung out past Jupiter or inward past
Venus. It might even be propelled into the Sun, as happens to many
near-Earth asteroids after a few tens of millions of years. The orbital
mechanics are very complex, so it's difficult to predict, but the upshot is
that the Roadster won't be roaming the Solar System for as long as its
neighbors.
Another problem is that with the Roadster so close to the plane of the
ecliptic, it's in danger of being struck by cosmic debris. There is a very
small chance that it might be hit by a large object like an asteroid, but
the greater threat is from micrometeoroids, which over the millennia will
hit the car time and again. Each of these will cause small and not-so-small
amounts of damage, until it could one day look like it's been shot at by a
cannon filled with sand and gravel.
But the much greater problem is that the Roadster isn't a purpose-built
spacecraft. It's a production electric car, which means it's as suitable for
surviving the environment of space as a chocolate Easter bunny in a
convection oven.
<javascript:void(0)>
<javascript:void(0)> The Roadster passing the terminator
We're used to stories of interplanetary spacecraft functioning long past the
predicted end of their service life. Mars rovers expected to operate for 90
days are still rolling after many years, and the Voyager probes are still
working 40 years after their launch. Even the defunct machines, like the
<https://newatlas.com/kepler-recovery-emergency-mode/42756/> Kepler Space
Telescope, can be expected to be around for many millions of years in a
relatively intact condition. Why not the roadster, then?
The answer is very simple. Space engineers have spent decades studying how
to build spacecraft and especially which materials to build them out of.
They know which ones can withstand the extreme heat and cold of space, the
hard ultraviolet (UV) radiation, as well as the X-rays, gamma rays, and
cosmic rays that are constantly bombarding our technology outside the
protection of Earth's atmosphere and Van Allen belts.
The Tesla Roadster, on the other hand, was designed to drive on Earthside
roads, not galavant between the Earth and Mars. It was made to be light and
fast, and have good road handling. That may be fine on the twisting roads of
Italy, but the engineering that went into the Roadster is now a positive
detriment in space.
The biggest problem is that the Roadster, and Starman, and made up largely
of rubber, plastics, and carbon composites, which consist of long chain
organic molecules that include epoxy resins, polypropylene, polystyrene,
polyvinyl chloride, nylon, and many others. These make up the carbon
composite car body, the fabrics in the interior, the cushions in the seats,
electrical insulation, and a myriad of fasteners, fairings, and adhesive
compounds. Starman and his suit are made almost entirely out of organic
polymers and even the safety glass in the car's windscreen is a plastic
laminate.
All of these, at this very moment, are being subjected to dangerously high
temperature variations as the sunlit areas heat to 260º F (127º C) and the
shaded areas plunging to -280º F (-173º C). Fortunately, the second stage is
slowly rotating, so the car is being evenly baked like a rotisserie chicken,
but as the vehicle orbits toward and away from the Sun, it will produce
strong thermal stresses that will produce all manner of material fatigue.
Also, the rotation means that anything that comes loose can fly away.
But the worst is all that radiation hitting those long polymer chain
molecules. As the rays strike, they will break down the molecules bit by
bit, converting them into free radicals. The same goes for the pigments used
to give the Roadster its red color. Eventually, the car will become
bleached, then everything made of polymers will disintegrate and crumble
into dust.
It's all happened before and it doesn't take very long. If you look at
pictures of the old Apollo moon missions of the late 1960s and early 70s,
you'll be familiar with the images of spacesuited American astronauts
saluting the <https://newatlas.com/apollo-moon-flags-standing/23523/> flag
and the Lunar Module wrapped in gold Mylar foil to keep it cool under the
harsh lunar sun. If you were to go back to those landing sites, you'd find
the flag poles empty and the descent stage of the module largely unclad
because half a century of radiation has done its work.
So what will the Tesla Roadster look like in a couple of centuries? The most
obvious thing will be that the carbon composite body will be gone as the
epoxy resins have all broken down and the carbon fibers fallen apart. The
rubber tires on the wheels won't be there either.
Many other bits will have come loose as the adhesives turned brittle and
ceased to stick. Even the windscreen will have a yellowy opaque look,
provided the laminate hasn't failed completely or a meteoroid hasn't slammed
into it. In the cockpit, Starman is now reduced to a few metal joints. The
seats are bare metal frames with the fabric covers now powder, and the foam
rubber cushions long gone.
Other materials in the car will also suffer over time. Any lubricants will
have frozen or boiled away. Those that remain will degrade like the
plastics, turning into a brittle mess. If any graphite was used for
lubricant, the water molecules that make graphite powder slippery will
evaporate and the carbon molecules left behind will now have the property of
jeweler's polish.
It's very likely that the 6,831 lithium-ion cells that powered the Roadster
will have been removed before leaving Earth. The FAA probably wouldn't have
been too happy about 700 lb (317 kg) of fire-prone batteries sitting atop
the Falcon Heavy, turning into a very large bomb. However, there was a
battery aboard to run the cameras that beamed back video to Earth. That
battery may, depending on its design, start to generate gas and may one day
explode. Meanwhile, the electronics used to transmit video will very soon be
fried by the radiation as the delicate micro circuits are destroyed bit by
bit.
Even the metals in the car will be affected. The roadster uses advanced
alloys – some of which might start to outgas. Radiation will eventually
affect the crystalline structure of the alloys and may give them a patina,
such as is sometimes found on metallic objects in very dry deserts. Over
millions of years, some may become brittle. Some may develop something
similar to tin pest, where tin alters its structure at very low temperatures
and appears to rot.
In the end, if some distant future expedition does retrieve the Roadster, it
will be in a sorry state – a battered, bare metal frame with a few pockets
of organic chemical dust. But maybe that won't be so bad. Maybe it will give
it the right air of romance, like the Parthenon or Stonehenge. Or maybe it
will be regarded as a challenge by the finders, who may embark on the
greatest car restoration project in history.
Let's hope they get the paint job right.
Larry (too used for me) - Cleveland
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-------------- next part --------------
Charlie,
Not too loudly, this is a Pantera forum and some people will adopt that
mantra for their restoration ala Gas Monkey Garage!
All I could envisage when reading the article was an open top car with
stereo blazing Elton John's 'Rocket Man'; then sanity struck and I
remembered sound doesn't travel in a vacuum...
You have to admit there is a certain irony in how much energy was
expended and fossil fuel (Rocket propellant RP-1) burned to put a zero
emission vehicle in space that will ultimately disintegrate and pollute
the non-atmosphere!
Julian
__________________________________________________________________
From: DeTomaso <detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com> on behalf of
Charles McCall <charlesmccall at gmail.com>
Sent: Monday, February 12, 2018 11:47 AM
To: 'Larry-Ohio Time Corp'; detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
Subject: Re: [DeTomaso] NPC: Tesla in space
I agree with Dr. Chuck... interesting reading.
Hey, if you have the $$, why not, even if you don't know how it'll turn
out?
-----Original Message-----
From: DeTomaso [[1]mailto:detomaso-bounces at server.detomasolist.com] On
Behalf
Of Larry-Ohio Time Corp
Sent: lunes, 12 de febrero de 2018 20:14
To: detomaso at server.detomasolist.com
Subject: [DeTomaso] NPC: Tesla in space
If the SpaceX <[2]https://newatlas.com/falcon-heavy-launch/53258/>
Falcon
Heavy is the world's most powerful rocket, then the Tesla Roadster that
it
shot into interplanetary space holds the record for the fastest car in
history. This cosmic convertible will orbit around the Sun once every
1.6
years, but how long will it continue to do so, and what will be its
fate?
Will it still look as pristine a billion years from now as it did in
the
videos beamed back to Earth? Probably not.
At the moment, there are five US spacecraft speeding out of our Solar
System, never to return. Billions of years from now, when our Sun has
turned
into a red giant and engulfed the Earth in nuclear fire, the Pioneer,
<[3]https://newatlas.com/voyager-40th-anniversary-retrospective-gallery
/50744/>
Voyager, and
<[4]https://newatlas.com/new-horizons-pluto-flyby-nasa/34777/>
New Horizons probes will still be traveling through our galaxy like a
quintet of robotic Odysseus's.
Even back in our system and revolving about our Earth are satellites
that
will still be around for many millions of years. For example, one
Earth-orbiting satellite, <[5]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LAGEOS>
LAGEOS-1,
is a passive laser reflector satellite that will not only remain
circling
our planet for 8.4 million years, but will remain functional for most
of
that time.
<javascript:void(0)>
With a track record like that, it looks as if the Tesla Roadster that
rocketed into space on February 6, 2018 will be cruising happily among
the
stars as a permanent monument to the early days of commercial deep
space
travel. It's a nice thought that the Starman mannequin driver and his
cherry
red ride will still be around long after the pyramids have crumbled to
sand.
Except that's not going to happen. In fact, the Starman and the
Roadster are
in for a very unpleasant time and may not be in very good shape after a
few
years. And their lifespan, while huge by human standards, may be rather
limited.
At the moment, the Falcon Heavy second stage and the Roadster attached
to it
are in an orbit that
<[6]https://mobile.twitter.com/planet4589/status/961394843648954368>
Jonathan
McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics has
recalculated
from Elon Musk's rather generous
<[7]https://newatlas.com/spacex-images-starman-asteroid/53301/> rough
estimate
of a few hours after liftoff. According to McDowell, the second stage
is a
Hohmann transfer orbit, which is most economical orbit in terms of
energy
for going from one place to another.
<javascript:void(0)>
Where Musk estimated that the second stage was circling the Sun at a
distance between 91 million mi (150 million km) and 240 million mi (390
million km) with an inclination of 29-o to the ecliptic, McDowell
calculates
that its orbit is between 92 million mi (148 million km) and 158
million mi
(255 million km) with an inclination of 1.1-o and a period of about 1.6
years. This puts its farthest distance from the sun just beyond the
orbit of
Mars.
The popular idea is that the Roadster will orbit the Sun for hundreds
of
millions, if not billions of years, but that isn't the case. The second
stage and Roadster are now essentially a
<http://www.science20.com/robert_walker/will_elon_musks_cherry_red_tesl
a_roa
dster_orbit_for_a_billion_years_falcon_heavy_test_launch-230358>
near-Earth
object (NEO), much like the asteroids that space agencies keep an eye
on
just in case a large one is going to hit the Earth.
One thing that marks NEOs is that they don't have very long careers.
They're
interplanetary jaywalkers with all the hazards that implies. Planets
and
asteroids in circular orbits stay out of each other's way and are
relatively
stable, but NEOs, and the Roadster, are in eccentric orbits that cross
the
orbits of the planets. This makes their trajectories very unstable.
<javascript:void(0)>
The second stage will cross the orbits of Earth and Mars and its
trajectory
will certainly be perturbed by Jupiter's gravitational field, so there
is a
small chance that it might strike Earth or Mars many thousands of years
from
now, though it's so small that it will burn up in the atmosphere.
Another
possibility is that it might get flung out past Jupiter or inward past
Venus. It might even be propelled into the Sun, as happens to many
near-Earth asteroids after a few tens of millions of years. The orbital
mechanics are very complex, so it's difficult to predict, but the
upshot is
that the Roadster won't be roaming the Solar System for as long as its
neighbors.
Another problem is that with the Roadster so close to the plane of the
ecliptic, it's in danger of being struck by cosmic debris. There is a
very
small chance that it might be hit by a large object like an asteroid,
but
the greater threat is from micrometeoroids, which over the millennia
will
hit the car time and again. Each of these will cause small and
not-so-small
amounts of damage, until it could one day look like it's been shot at
by a
cannon filled with sand and gravel.
But the much greater problem is that the Roadster isn't a purpose-built
spacecraft. It's a production electric car, which means it's as
suitable for
surviving the environment of space as a chocolate Easter bunny in a
convection oven.
<javascript:void(0)>
<javascript:void(0)> The Roadster passing the terminator
We're used to stories of interplanetary spacecraft functioning long
past the
predicted end of their service life. Mars rovers expected to operate
for 90
days are still rolling after many years, and the Voyager probes are
still
working 40 years after their launch. Even the defunct machines, like
the
<[8]https://newatlas.com/kepler-recovery-emergency-mode/42756/> Kepler
Space
Telescope, can be expected to be around for many millions of years in a
relatively intact condition. Why not the roadster, then?
The answer is very simple. Space engineers have spent decades studying
how
to build spacecraft and especially which materials to build them out
of.
They know which ones can withstand the extreme heat and cold of space,
the
hard ultraviolet (UV) radiation, as well as the X-rays, gamma rays, and
cosmic rays that are constantly bombarding our technology outside the
protection of Earth's atmosphere and Van Allen belts.
The Tesla Roadster, on the other hand, was designed to drive on
Earthside
roads, not galavant between the Earth and Mars. It was made to be light
and
fast, and have good road handling. That may be fine on the twisting
roads of
Italy, but the engineering that went into the Roadster is now a
positive
detriment in space.
The biggest problem is that the Roadster, and Starman, and made up
largely
of rubber, plastics, and carbon composites, which consist of long chain
organic molecules that include epoxy resins, polypropylene,
polystyrene,
polyvinyl chloride, nylon, and many others. These make up the carbon
composite car body, the fabrics in the interior, the cushions in the
seats,
electrical insulation, and a myriad of fasteners, fairings, and
adhesive
compounds. Starman and his suit are made almost entirely out of organic
polymers and even the safety glass in the car's windscreen is a plastic
laminate.
All of these, at this very moment, are being subjected to dangerously
high
temperature variations as the sunlit areas heat to 260-o F (127-o C)
and the
shaded areas plunging to -280-o F (-173-o C). Fortunately, the second
stage is
slowly rotating, so the car is being evenly baked like a rotisserie
chicken,
but as the vehicle orbits toward and away from the Sun, it will produce
strong thermal stresses that will produce all manner of material
fatigue.
Also, the rotation means that anything that comes loose can fly away.
But the worst is all that radiation hitting those long polymer chain
molecules. As the rays strike, they will break down the molecules bit
by
bit, converting them into free radicals. The same goes for the pigments
used
to give the Roadster its red color. Eventually, the car will become
bleached, then everything made of polymers will disintegrate and
crumble
into dust.
It's all happened before and it doesn't take very long. If you look at
pictures of the old Apollo moon missions of the late 1960s and early
70s,
you'll be familiar with the images of spacesuited American astronauts
saluting the
<[9]https://newatlas.com/apollo-moon-flags-standing/23523/> flag
and the Lunar Module wrapped in gold Mylar foil to keep it cool under
the
harsh lunar sun. If you were to go back to those landing sites, you'd
find
the flag poles empty and the descent stage of the module largely unclad
because half a century of radiation has done its work.
So what will the Tesla Roadster look like in a couple of centuries? The
most
obvious thing will be that the carbon composite body will be gone as
the
epoxy resins have all broken down and the carbon fibers fallen apart.
The
rubber tires on the wheels won't be there either.
Many other bits will have come loose as the adhesives turned brittle
and
ceased to stick. Even the windscreen will have a yellowy opaque look,
provided the laminate hasn't failed completely or a meteoroid hasn't
slammed
into it. In the cockpit, Starman is now reduced to a few metal joints.
The
seats are bare metal frames with the fabric covers now powder, and the
foam
rubber cushions long gone.
Other materials in the car will also suffer over time. Any lubricants
will
have frozen or boiled away. Those that remain will degrade like the
plastics, turning into a brittle mess. If any graphite was used for
lubricant, the water molecules that make graphite powder slippery will
evaporate and the carbon molecules left behind will now have the
property of
jeweler's polish.
It's very likely that the 6,831 lithium-ion cells that powered the
Roadster
will have been removed before leaving Earth. The FAA probably wouldn't
have
been too happy about 700 lb (317 kg) of fire-prone batteries sitting
atop
the Falcon Heavy, turning into a very large bomb. However, there was a
battery aboard to run the cameras that beamed back video to Earth. That
battery may, depending on its design, start to generate gas and may one
day
explode. Meanwhile, the electronics used to transmit video will very
soon be
fried by the radiation as the delicate micro circuits are destroyed bit
by
bit.
Even the metals in the car will be affected. The roadster uses advanced
alloys - some of which might start to outgas. Radiation will eventually
affect the crystalline structure of the alloys and may give them a
patina,
such as is sometimes found on metallic objects in very dry deserts.
Over
millions of years, some may become brittle. Some may develop something
similar to tin pest, where tin alters its structure at very low
temperatures
and appears to rot.
In the end, if some distant future expedition does retrieve the
Roadster, it
will be in a sorry state - a battered, bare metal frame with a few
pockets
of organic chemical dust. But maybe that won't be so bad. Maybe it will
give
it the right air of romance, like the Parthenon or Stonehenge. Or maybe
it
will be regarded as a challenge by the finders, who may embark on the
greatest car restoration project in history.
Let's hope they get the paint job right.
Larry (too used for me) - Cleveland
_______________________________________________
Detomaso Email List is not managed by POCA
Posted emails must not exceed 1.5 Megabytes
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4. https://newatlas.com/new-horizons-pluto-flyby-nasa/34777/
5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LAGEOS
6. https://mobile.twitter.com/planet4589/status/961394843648954368
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