[DeTomaso] NPC: Tesla in space

[cengles at cox.net]

Dear Larry:   Excellent report.  Thanks for sharing.   Warmest regards, 
Chuck Engles




On Mon, Feb 12, 2018 at 1:13 PM, Larry-Ohio Time Corp wrote:

> If the SpaceX  <https://newatlas.com/falcon-heavy-launch/53258/> 
> Falcon
> Heavy is the world's most powerful rocket, then the Tesla Roadster 
> that it
> shot into interplanetary space holds the record for the fastest car in
> history. This cosmic convertible will orbit around the Sun once every 
> 1.6
> years, but how long will it continue to do so, and what will be its 
> fate?
> Will it still look as pristine a billion years from now as it did in 
> the
> videos beamed back to Earth? Probably not.
>
>
> At the moment, there are five US spacecraft speeding out of our Solar
> System, never to return. Billions of years from now, when our Sun has 
> turned
> into a red giant and engulfed the Earth in nuclear fire, the Pioneer,
> 
> <https://newatlas.com/voyager-40th-anniversary-retrospective-gallery/50744/>
> Voyager, and 
> <https://newatlas.com/new-horizons-pluto-flyby-nasa/34777/>
> New Horizons probes will still be traveling through our galaxy like a
> quintet of robotic Odysseus's.
>
> Even back in our system and revolving about our Earth are satellites 
> that
> will still be around for many millions of years. For example, one
> Earth-orbiting satellite,  <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LAGEOS> 
> LAGEOS-1,
> is a passive laser reflector satellite that will not only remain 
> circling
> our planet for 8.4 million years, but will remain functional for most 
> of
> that time.
>
>  <javascript:void(0)>
>
> With a track record like that, it looks as if the Tesla Roadster that
> rocketed into space on February 6, 2018 will be cruising happily among 
> the
> stars as a permanent monument to the early days of commercial deep 
> space
> travel. It's a nice thought that the Starman mannequin driver and his 
> cherry
> red ride will still be around long after the pyramids have crumbled to 
> sand.
>
> Except that's not going to happen. In fact, the Starman and the 
> Roadster are
> in for a very unpleasant time and may not be in very good shape after 
> a few
> years. And their lifespan, while huge by human standards, may be 
> rather
> limited.
>
> At the moment, the Falcon Heavy second stage and the Roadster attached 
> to it
> are in an orbit that
> <https://mobile.twitter.com/planet4589/status/961394843648954368> 
> Jonathan
> McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics has 
> recalculated
> from Elon Musk's rather generous
> <https://newatlas.com/spacex-images-starman-asteroid/53301/> rough 
> estimate
> of a few hours after liftoff. According to McDowell, the second stage 
> is a
> Hohmann transfer orbit, which is most economical orbit in terms of 
> energy
> for going from one place to another.
>
>  <javascript:void(0)>
>
> Where Musk estimated that the second stage was circling the Sun at a
> distance between 91 million mi (150 million km) and 240 million mi 
> (390
> million km) with an inclination of 29º to the ecliptic, McDowell 
> calculates
> that its orbit is between 92 million mi (148 million km) and 158 
> million mi
> (255 million km) with an inclination of 1.1º and a period of about 1.6
> years. This puts its farthest distance from the sun just beyond the 
> orbit of
> Mars.
>
> The popular idea is that the Roadster will orbit the Sun for hundreds 
> of
> millions, if not billions of years, but that isn't the case. The 
> second
> stage and Roadster are now essentially a
> 
> <http://www.science20.com/robert_walker/will_elon_musks_cherry_red_tesla_roa
> dster_orbit_for_a_billion_years_falcon_heavy_test_launch-230358> 
> near-Earth
> object (NEO), much like the asteroids that space agencies keep an eye 
> on
> just in case a large one is going to hit the Earth.
>
> One thing that marks NEOs is that they don't have very long careers. 
> They're
> interplanetary jaywalkers with all the hazards that implies. Planets 
> and
> asteroids in circular orbits stay out of each other's way and are 
> relatively
> stable, but NEOs, and the Roadster, are in eccentric orbits that cross 
> the
> orbits of the planets. This makes their trajectories very unstable.
>
>  <javascript:void(0)>
>
> The second stage will cross the orbits of Earth and Mars and its 
> trajectory
> will certainly be perturbed by Jupiter's gravitational field, so there 
> is a
> small chance that it might strike Earth or Mars many thousands of 
> years from
> now, though it's so small that it will burn up in the atmosphere. 
> Another
> possibility is that it might get flung out past Jupiter or inward past
> Venus. It might even be propelled into the Sun, as happens to many
> near-Earth asteroids after a few tens of millions of years. The 
> orbital
> mechanics are very complex, so it's difficult to predict, but the 
> upshot is
> that the Roadster won't be roaming the Solar System for as long as its
> neighbors.
>
> Another problem is that with the Roadster so close to the plane of the
> ecliptic, it's in danger of being struck by cosmic debris. There is a 
> very
> small chance that it might be hit by a large object like an asteroid, 
> but
> the greater threat is from micrometeoroids, which over the millennia 
> will
> hit the car time and again. Each of these will cause small and 
> not-so-small
> amounts of damage, until it could one day look like it's been shot at 
> by a
> cannon filled with sand and gravel.
>
> But the much greater problem is that the Roadster isn't a 
> purpose-built
> spacecraft. It's a production electric car, which means it's as 
> suitable for
> surviving the environment of space as a chocolate Easter bunny in a
> convection oven.
>
>  <javascript:void(0)>
>  <javascript:void(0)> The Roadster passing the terminator
>
>
> We're used to stories of interplanetary spacecraft functioning long 
> past the
> predicted end of their service life. Mars rovers expected to operate 
> for 90
> days are still rolling after many years, and the Voyager probes are 
> still
> working 40 years after their launch. Even the defunct machines, like 
> the
> <https://newatlas.com/kepler-recovery-emergency-mode/42756/> Kepler 
> Space
> Telescope, can be expected to be around for many millions of years in 
> a
> relatively intact condition. Why not the roadster, then?
>
> The answer is very simple. Space engineers have spent decades studying 
> how
> to build spacecraft and especially which materials to build them out 
> of.
> They know which ones can withstand the extreme heat and cold of space, 
> the
> hard ultraviolet (UV) radiation, as well as the X-rays, gamma rays, 
> and
> cosmic rays that are constantly bombarding our technology outside the
> protection of Earth's atmosphere and Van Allen belts.
>
> The Tesla Roadster, on the other hand, was designed to drive on 
> Earthside
> roads, not galavant between the Earth and Mars. It was made to be 
> light and
> fast, and have good road handling. That may be fine on the twisting 
> roads of
> Italy, but the engineering that went into the Roadster is now a 
> positive
> detriment in space.
>
> The biggest problem is that the Roadster, and Starman, and made up 
> largely
> of rubber, plastics, and carbon composites, which consist of long 
> chain
> organic molecules that include epoxy resins, polypropylene, 
> polystyrene,
> polyvinyl chloride, nylon, and many others. These make up the carbon
> composite car body, the fabrics in the interior, the cushions in the 
> seats,
> electrical insulation, and a myriad of fasteners, fairings, and 
> adhesive
> compounds. Starman and his suit are made almost entirely out of 
> organic
> polymers and even the safety glass in the car's windscreen is a 
> plastic
> laminate.
>
> All of these, at this very moment, are being subjected to dangerously 
> high
> temperature variations as the sunlit areas heat to 260º F (127º C) and 
> the
> shaded areas plunging to -280º F (-173º C). Fortunately, the second 
> stage is
> slowly rotating, so the car is being evenly baked like a rotisserie 
> chicken,
> but as the vehicle orbits toward and away from the Sun, it will 
> produce
> strong thermal stresses that will produce all manner of material 
> fatigue.
> Also, the rotation means that anything that comes loose can fly away.
>
> But the worst is all that radiation hitting those long polymer chain
> molecules. As the rays strike, they will break down the molecules bit 
> by
> bit, converting them into free radicals. The same goes for the 
> pigments used
> to give the Roadster its red color. Eventually, the car will become
> bleached, then everything made of polymers will disintegrate and 
> crumble
> into dust.
>
> It's all happened before and it doesn't take very long. If you look at
> pictures of the old Apollo moon missions of the late 1960s and early 
> 70s,
> you'll be familiar with the images of spacesuited American astronauts
> saluting the  <https://newatlas.com/apollo-moon-flags-standing/23523/> 
> flag
> and the Lunar Module wrapped in gold Mylar foil to keep it cool under 
> the
> harsh lunar sun. If you were to go back to those landing sites, you'd 
> find
> the flag poles empty and the descent stage of the module largely 
> unclad
> because half a century of radiation has done its work.
>
> So what will the Tesla Roadster look like in a couple of centuries? 
> The most
> obvious thing will be that the carbon composite body will be gone as 
> the
> epoxy resins have all broken down and the carbon fibers fallen apart. 
> The
> rubber tires on the wheels won't be there either.
>
> Many other bits will have come loose as the adhesives turned brittle 
> and
> ceased to stick. Even the windscreen will have a yellowy opaque look,
> provided the laminate hasn't failed completely or a meteoroid hasn't 
> slammed
> into it. In the cockpit, Starman is now reduced to a few metal joints. 
> The
> seats are bare metal frames with the fabric covers now powder, and the 
> foam
> rubber cushions long gone.
>
> Other materials in the car will also suffer over time. Any lubricants 
> will
> have frozen or boiled away. Those that remain will degrade like the
> plastics, turning into a brittle mess. If any graphite was used for
> lubricant, the water molecules that make graphite powder slippery will
> evaporate and the carbon molecules left behind will now have the 
> property of
> jeweler's polish.
>
> It's very likely that the 6,831 lithium-ion cells that powered the 
> Roadster
> will have been removed before leaving Earth. The FAA probably wouldn't 
> have
> been too happy about 700 lb (317 kg) of fire-prone batteries sitting 
> atop
> the Falcon Heavy, turning into a very large bomb. However, there was a
> battery aboard to run the cameras that beamed back video to Earth. 
> That
> battery may, depending on its design, start to generate gas and may 
> one day
> explode. Meanwhile, the electronics used to transmit video will very 
> soon be
> fried by the radiation as the delicate micro circuits are destroyed 
> bit by
> bit.
>
> Even the metals in the car will be affected. The roadster uses 
> advanced
> alloys – some of which might start to outgas. Radiation will 
> eventually
> affect the crystalline structure of the alloys and may give them a 
> patina,
> such as is sometimes found on metallic objects in very dry deserts. 
> Over
> millions of years, some may become brittle. Some may develop something
> similar to tin pest, where tin alters its structure at very low 
> temperatures
> and appears to rot.
>
> In the end, if some distant future expedition does retrieve the 
> Roadster, it
> will be in a sorry state – a battered, bare metal frame with a few 
> pockets
> of organic chemical dust. But maybe that won't be so bad. Maybe it 
> will give
> it the right air of romance, like the Parthenon or Stonehenge. Or 
> maybe it
> will be regarded as a challenge by the finders, who may embark on the
> greatest car restoration project in history.
>
> Let's hope they get the paint job right.
>
>  Larry (too used for me) - Cleveland
>
>
>
>      ------------------------------
>
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