[DeTomaso] "Are you Ready for the Future?" (No direct PC but interesting!)
Ken Green
kenn_green at yahoo.com
Wed Dec 27 15:10:50 EST 2017
Oh great, now someone hacks into your PC and it crashes and dies, in 20 years someone hacks into your PC and your car crashes and you die? A bright future for auto insurance companies and attorneys suing software companies?
Be very careful about claims of accuracy for software. I remember a PHD at Hughes aircraft who claimed his sonar signal processing could find targets when no other methods were successful. It turned out that his method produced so many false alarms that some just happened to fall close to the target.
Back around 1980 a new neural network target recognition algorithm was 100% successful in classifying a tank versus a truck. Turned out that different film was used for the tank photos and the truck photos. The algorithm did a good job of distinguishing between film type, but not so good at tanks.
Do you really want to believe anything about future computers when the PC community can't even figure out how to keep a hacker from modifying the operating system on your PC? Like maybe a manual switch that has to be physically moved before the PC allows the operating system to be modified?
Maybe Picasso was onto something regarding computers "But they are useless. They can only give you answers."
Ken
From: Laurie Ferrari via DeTomaso <detomaso at server.detomasolist.com>
To: detomaso at detomasolist.com
Sent: Wednesday, December 27, 2017 10:41 AM
Subject: [DeTomaso] "Are you Ready for the Future?" (No direct PC but interesting!)
Subject: : Are You Ready for the Future?
An interesting talk by the Head of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz)
A bit mind blowing to say the least! He predicted an interesting
concept of what could lay ahead.
In a recent interview, the Head of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said
their competitors are no longer other car companies, but Tesla
(obviously), and now, Google, Apple, Amazon 'et al' area|a|
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10
years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the
biggest taxi company in the world.
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they
don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in
understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player
in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the U.S., young lawyers already can't get jobs. Because of IBM
Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff)
within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done
by humans.
So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers
in the future, only specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate
than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software
that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will
become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for
the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be
disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car
with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your
destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven
distance and you can be productive while driving. Our kids will never
get a driver's license and will never own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for
that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.
1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now
have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous
driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million
km). That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies will probably go bankrupt. Traditional car companies
will try the traditional approach and try to build a better car, while
tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will take the revolutionary
approach and build a computer on wheels.
Many engineers from Volkswagen, BMW and Audi are completely terrified
of Tesla.
Auto Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without
accidents, car insurance will become much cheaper. Their car insurance
business model will slowly disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute,
people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less
noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will
become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an
exponential curve for 30 years, and now you can now see the burgeoning
impact.
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than
fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the
grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that
can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy...
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of
salt water now only needs 2kwh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We
don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking
water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean
water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health innovations: The Tricorder X price will be announced this
year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the
"Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes
your retina scan, your blood sample, and you can breathe into it.
It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any
disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet
will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for
free. Goodbye, medical establishment.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from
$18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times
faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing
shoes.
Some common spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote
airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need
for the large amount of spare parts they used to keep in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect
shoes at home.
In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office
building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D
printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask
yourself: "In the future, do you think we will have that?", and if the
answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea
designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the
21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will
be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new
jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future.
Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field
instead of working all day on their fields.
Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish that
produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced
veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for
cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.
There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market
shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as
"alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea
of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood
you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial
expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's
being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.
Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per
year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80
years.The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more
than one-year increase per year. So, we all might live for a long
time, probably waymore than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and
Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means,
everyone has the same access to world class education.
Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn
at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of
software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic,
Swahili, and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we
give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and
everywhere else can become fluent in English. And that could happen
within half a year.
_______________________________________________
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Posted emails must not exceed 1.5 Megabytes
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-------------- next part --------------
Oh great, now someone hacks into your PC and it crashes and dies, in 20
years someone hacks into your PC and your car crashes and you die? A
bright future for auto insurance companies and attorneys suing software
companies?
Be very careful about claims of accuracy for software. I remember a
PHD at Hughes aircraft who claimed his sonar signal processing could
find targets when no other methods were successful. It turned out that
his method produced so many false alarms that some just happened to
fall close to the target.
Back around 1980 a new neural network target recognition algorithm was
100% successful in classifying a tank versus a truck. Turned out that
different film was used for the tank photos and the truck photos. The
algorithm did a good job of distinguishing between film type, but not
so good at tanks.
Do you really want to believe anything about future computers when the
PC community can't even figure out how to keep a hacker from modifying
the operating system on your PC? Like maybe a manual switch that has
to be physically moved before the PC allows the operating system to be
modified?
Maybe Picasso was onto something regarding computers "But they are
useless. They can only give you answers."
Ken
__________________________________________________________________
From: Laurie Ferrari via DeTomaso <detomaso at server.detomasolist.com>
To: detomaso at detomasolist.com
Sent: Wednesday, December 27, 2017 10:41 AM
Subject: [DeTomaso] "Are you Ready for the Future?" (No direct PC but
interesting!)
Subject: : Are You Ready for the Future?
An interesting talk by the Head of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz)
A bit mind blowing to say the least! He predicted an interesting
concept of what could lay ahead.
In a recent interview, the Head of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said
their competitors are no longer other car companies, but Tesla
(obviously), and now, Google, Apple, Amazon 'et al' area|a|
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10
years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now
the
biggest taxi company in the world.
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they
don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in
understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go
player
in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the U.S., young lawyers already can't get jobs. Because of IBM
Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic
stuff)
within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when
done
by humans.
So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less
lawyers
in the future, only specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate
than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software
that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will
become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for
the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be
disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car
with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to
your
destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the
driven
distance and you can be productive while driving. Our kids will
never
get a driver's license and will never own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for
that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.
1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now
have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous
driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million
km). That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies will probably go bankrupt. Traditional car
companies
will try the traditional approach and try to build a better car,
while
tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will take the revolutionary
approach and build a computer on wheels.
Many engineers from Volkswagen, BMW and Audi are completely terrified
of Tesla.
Auto Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without
accidents, car insurance will become much cheaper. Their car
insurance
business model will slowly disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute,
people will move further away to live in a more beautiful
neighborhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less
noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will
become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an
exponential curve for 30 years, and now you can now see the
burgeoning
impact.
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than
fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to
the
grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that
can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy...
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination
of
salt water now only needs 2kwh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We
don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking
water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean
water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health innovations: The Tricorder X price will be announced this
year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the
"Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes
your retina scan, your blood sample, and you can breathe into it.
It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any
disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet
will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for
free. Goodbye, medical establishment.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from
$18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100
times
faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing
shoes.
Some common spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote
airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the
need
for the large amount of spare parts they used to keep in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect
shoes at home.
In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey
office
building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be
3D
printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in,
ask
yourself: "In the future, do you think we will have that?", and if
the
answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea
designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the
21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will
be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new
jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future.
Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their
field
instead of working all day on their fields.
Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish that
produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced
veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used
for
cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.
There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the
market
shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as
"alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the
idea
of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood
you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial
expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's
being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.
Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the
world!
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months
per
year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80
years.The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be
more
than one-year increase per year. So, we all might live for a long
time, probably waymore than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa
and
Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That
means,
everyone has the same access to world class education.
Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to
learn
at school in First World countries. There have already been releases
of
software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic,
Swahili, and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we
give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and
everywhere else can become fluent in English. And that could happen
within half a year.
_______________________________________________
Detomaso Email List is not managed by POCA
Posted emails must not exceed 1.5 Megabytes
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