[DeTomaso] NPC: ti's a good time to be in....

jderyke at aol.com jderyke at aol.com
Wed Apr 1 15:51:08 EDT 2015


One thing to consider is the company doing the driverless car programming. If Microsoft wins the bid, I'm moving to rural Montana- or maybe Alaska!
J DeRyke


-----Original Message-----
From: audionut <audionut at hushmail.com>
To: Larry - Ohio Time <larry at ohiotimecorp.com>; 'De Tomaso List' <detomaso at poca.com>
Sent: Wed, Apr 1, 2015 12:21 pm
Subject: Re: [DeTomaso] NPC:  ti's a good time to be in....


Great info, thanks Larry.  These trends appear very positive to me.

   Just
Uber'd around Hollywood last weekend.  Using phones, my friends
   set us all
up with these local kids (anybody under 30 is a "kid" to me
   now) who showed
up instantly in Priuses to take us anywhere for next to
   nothing.



  
It was so nice to not have to worry about driving or parking when
   kicking
around the city.



   Being out on the road with robots seems like it would
make the roads
   safer and more efficient.  Slow cars in the faster lanes
would be
   fewer.  Since I'm also a motorcycle rider, I feel that sensor
  
technology looking out for me will doubtless be superior than your
   everyday
random human, who may or may not decide to check their blind
   spot.



  
People who would rather not drive are most likely crappy drivers
   anyway. 
I'm all for robots putting them in the passenger seats.



   Sent using
Hushmail
   On April 1, 2015 at 9:01 AM, "Larry - Ohio Time"
  
<Larry at ohiotimecorp.com> wrote:

     Ken Washington, Ford's new VP of
research and advanced engineering
     Global trends appear to be moving
towards a future where in many
     markets,
     car ownership may look like
an expensive, impractical and
     inconvenient way
     to get around. So
what's the next model of personal transport, and
     where do
     the big
automakers fit in? Ford's new global VP of Research and
     Advanced
    
Engineering, Ken Washington, sat down in Melbourne for a "crystal
     ball"
 
discussion about autonomous cars, on-demand vehicles, car sharing,
     smart

parking, multi-mode transport, and how a car company might learn to
     cater
to
     a new generation of customers that are far more interested in
    
upgrading
     their phones than getting their driver's licenses.
     Over
the last 100 years, auto manufacturers have created a fairly
     stable
    
relationship with their customers. People buy cars more or less as
     soon
as
     they can afford them, and enjoy a freedom of mobility that was
    
unavailable
     to them beforehand. Cars transform our lives and they're a
symbol of
     independence. So many sexual awakenings have happened in, or
because
     of,
     cars that many owners have developed intense emotional
connections
     with
     them.
     But now, the wind is blowing in a
different direction. Where kids of
     Generation X dreamed of the day they'd
get their first car,
     Millennials are
     attaching the same feelings to
their smartphones. They're connected
     with
     their friends and love
interests 24/7 - the car is no longer the
     gateway to
     social
interaction.
     "When my son turned 16, he didn't care about getting his
driver's
     license,"
     says Washington. "What he cared about was
upgrading his cellphone.
     That was
     just unfathomable to me, but to
him it was very natural and I think
     he
     wasn't alone. The new
generation is really thinking about how to use
     transportation in an
on-demand way, they are less tied emotionally
     to the
     physical
vehicle, and I think it's going to become very important
     for us to
    
be responsive to the future generations who are thinking about
     mobility
 
through that different lens."
     That's just one of the challenging trends
Ford and other auto
     manufacturers
     are facing, and Washington
identifies three other "megatrends" that
     are
     influencing thinking at
Ford.
     "First, there's urbanization. Today there's almost 30 cities with
 
more than
     10 million people. In the next 10 to 15 years there's some
studies
     that tell
     us that's going to grow to more than 40. So this
is a trend that's
     going to
     be significant and it means that the
infrastructure for transport is
     going
     to be more and more crowded,
it's going to be more and more
     difficult to get
     around. This notion
of global gridlock, which was theorized in the
     past, is
     going to
become more of a reality.
     "The second is more people are entering what we
would define as the
     middle
     class, where you have enough disposable
income to buy a car. From 2
     billion
     today, over the next 10 to 15
years we see than number doubling to 4
     billion
     people. You put that
together with the first trend.
     "Third trend that we're seeing is
increasing concerns about the
     environment,
     with air quality being
near the top of that list. So it's going to
     become
     increasingly
important for us to deal with the realities of, not
     only
     regulation
driven requirements on the automotive sector, but the
     right thing
     to
do for the world, to make air quality good for our future
     generations."
 
So - choked city roads, increasing pressures to go easier on the
    
environment, and a new generation coming through that is far less
     likely
to
     aspire to car ownership in the same way their parents did - what's
   
the path
     forward for automakers?
     Ford doesn't know what the future
looks like, but it has some
     theories and
     it's starting to test them
in the real world. So here's a few things
     Washington was prepared to speak
about.
     On self driving cars
     While he was unwilling to put a
time-frame on when Ford expects to
     go fully
     driverless, Washington
said, "autonomous vehicles are going to
     become a
     reality in the
future, we're pretty convinced of that. That puts
     more and
     more
requirement on the technology for autonomy to be very good and
     robust.
  
That's why we're taking our time to get that right. So imagine if
     you
get
     that right and you can take the driver out of the loop. Well that
   
might
     totally redefine what the interior of the vehicle might look like.

Say you
     have a city taxi service, if it's semi- or fully autonomous, you

might
     design that taxi vehicle to be very different looking to the cars
 
that we
     drive today. A lot of that will depend on the outcome of some of

these
     experiments that we're doing now."
     On the legalities of
driverless cars he said, "there are enough
     technical
     challenges that
that's where we're putting our energy right now. The
     automotive industry
has to come together as a community to work with
     the
     policymakers
and to address some of the legal issues. So
     technically, we
     believe
it's absolutely going to be possible for the ability to do
     full
    
autonomy in certain geofenced areas where the climate is good,
     you're
not
     obfuscated by snow and rain... that's going to be hard enough. The
  
good news
     is, we've got many of the building blocks available today. The
new
     Mondeo
     has many very capable semi-autonomous features on it.
Lane keeping,
     blind
     spot monitoring, parking assist, these are the
building blocks for
     the
     future fully autonomous vehicle."
     On
'"car on demand" subscription services
     "That's exactly one of our
experiments. And it's one that we're
     actually
     having some good
success with. We launched that experiment in the
     city of
     London.
With the density of the population there, it's very
     challenging to
    
own, park, drive and navigate. So we've launched one of our
     experiments
 
there we're calling Gold Drive. It's a vehicle on demand, we have
     both a

Focus BEV and a Focus Gas, a fleet of vehicles, and you can
     subscribe to
the
     vehicles using your smartphone. You access the vehicle, unlock it,
  
get in
     the car, start it, drive it for however many hours you wanna use
it
     for,
     drop it off... One of the early learnings we're getting from
that
     experiment
     is that people love the idea of using a car and then
being able to
     deliver
     it in a place where they have a guaranteed
parking spot. Those are
     the kinds
     of learnings that are telling us
that if we do something like a car
     on
     demand or a car sharing
service, make sure you have a place to park
     it - and
     also make it
easy for people to access it!
     "Another experiment we're doing is remote
positioning of vehicles.
     Imagine a
     future where you've got cars on
demand that you order, that you
     wanna have
     available the next
morning. Well, one of the challenges is having
     the
     vehicle in the
right place at the right time. Imagine a future where
     you
     could
actually re-locate that vehicle autonomously but remotely, by
     remote
    
control. So we're doing an experiment [using go-karts] to enable the
    
remote
     repositioning of vehicles using on-board cameras and sensors so
you
     can
     relocate a vehicle from one place to another, safely, but
with no
     on-vehicle
     human involvement. We're working with Georgia
Tech."
     On smart parking
     Many of Ford's new cars already have the
ability to identify an open
     parking
     spot as they drive past it. The
next step, according to Washington,
     might be
     to communicate with
other cars on the road when a spot is available.
     "It's not science
fiction, because the sensors on the vehicle are
     actually
     capable
enough to tell when you've driven by a parking spot. The
     vision
    
recognition capabilities of these on-vehicle sensors are actually
     good
  
enough to tell you if that's a valid parking spot or not. If you
     overlay

that with very detailed maps of certain cities, you could actually
    
imagine
     how you could inform an information system that this is not only
a
     free
     parking spot, but a valid one. We're doing an experiment, I
think
     it's in
     Atlanta in the US, where we're using the onboard
sensors of the
     vehicles to
     do exactly that. It's a prototype and
it's an experiment. We'll run
     that
     experiment for this year, and
based on what we learn we'll determine
     whether
     it's something we
wanna roll out as a service.
     "We've been thinking about this a lot - the
potential for bringing
     value to
     our customers is enormous if we can
do analytics around the data
     that's
     available that comes from the
vehicle, and process that in smart
     ways that
     give value back to the
customer. If a customer wants to have access
     to that
     parking
information, they might need to give us access to the
     sensors on
    
their vehicle to be a participant. That's one of the premises we're
    
testing,
     there are many other models we might use."
     On tech giants
Apple and Google getting into the automotive space
     "It's actually pretty
exciting to us that there's so much interest
     from the
     tech sector in
automobiles and the automotive sector. We think it's
     a case
     of
rising all boats, so we're pretty excited about that. It's
     validated the

need for us to be in Silicon Valley, and it's a pretty special
     place.
You've
     got a very high density of tech companies and venture capital
    
investment
     firms and universities and national laboratories doing very
cutting
     edge
     research and technology development. By being a part of
that
     community you
     have access to a very vibrant community of
innovative thinkers and
     technology innovators.
     "It's very validating
to us that technology behemoths like Apple and
     Google
    
<[1]http://www.gizmag.com/google-self-driving-car-prototype/35339/>;
     are
paying
     attention to the automotive industry. With that said, it's also a

bit of a
     wake-up call. We don't have forever to figure out how to take
our
     game to
     the next level in terms of driving innovation in our
business,
     getting value
     out of doing connected car and doing
something real with autonomous
     vehicle
     technology.
     "The good
news for us is that we've been in Silicon Valley for a
     number of
    
years. We started our operation there three years ago. This year we
     opened
a
     much larger facility and announced our commitment to populate that
    
facility
     with more than 120 people by the end of this year. We're very
  
excited about
     that. We've got a very creative team there and they're part
of a
     global PD
     (product development) team.
     "It's already
giving some benefits to us by enabling to accelerate
     some of
     our
partnerships with the universities there, and with tech
     companies that
  
we're doing research with. One of our projects is with Nest
    
<[2]http://www.gizmag.com/nest-developer-program-works-with-nest-hom
    
e-automatio
     n/32676/> , where we've developed a capability for the vehicle
to
     communicate to the Nest API so that when you approach your home,
    
it'll send
     a signal to your home to turn the temperature up, or to cool it
down
     - sort
     of a smart car/smart home concept. That wouldn't be
possible if we
     hadn't
     been there in Silicon Valley and forged that
relationship with Nest.
     "I'd say we're paying attention to the tech
companies' interest in
     the
     automotive sector, but I think threatened
is too strong a word."
     On Ford's data and analytics capabilities
     We
put it to Washington that Ford's existing fleet of vehicles could
     make
  
for a big advantage over Google's small fleet of autonomous test
    
vehicles
     and that every sensor on every Ford on the road could be
relaying
     back a
     massive amount of data to help jump-start Ford's own
autonomous car
     plans.
     "A big part of the big data experiment is to
assess the validity of
     doing
     something like that. So far the signals
are coming back that it's
     possible,
     it's very feasible. We are
getting more serious about data and
     analytics.
     We're just now in the
process of assembling our global data and
     analytics
     team under the
leadership of a new senior leader that we hired
     earlier this
     year.
We hired our first chief data and analytics officer, and he's
     assembling
this team and their primary responsibility is going to be
     to
     develop
the architecture for us to harvest and get value out of this
     massive
    
sensor set of vehicles that are collecting data - and to do it in
     the
right
     way, with the right privacy principles and the right cybersecurity

protocols
     and the right framework for keeping the data organized and
sorted so
     you can
     do analytics on it that can then inform how you
can actually make
     the
     service and the experience better. That's
certainly squarely in our
     plans."
     On whether the days of the car
enthusiast are coming to an end
     "I think you're going to have both models.
There are going to be
     people who
     continue to have a great
relationship with their vehicle. I'll never
     stop
     having that kind of
feeling toward my vehicle. I love to drive and I
     think
     I'm not
alone. I think that holds for future generations as well.
     But in
    
some circumstances it may be too difficult to be mobile in a
     megacity in
an
     efficient way, and we want to be able to enable our customers to
    
have good
     options when it's too difficult - and when it may not be the
best
     thing for
     the environment for everybody to try to fit a vehicle
on the road
     all the
     time where the infrastructure just doesn't
support it
     Larry - Cleveland

References

   1.
http://www.gizmag.com/google-self-driving-car-prototype/35339/>
   2.
http://www.gizmag.com/nest-developer-program-works-with-nest-home-automatio

 
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